UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira Fight Card, TV Info, Predictions and More (2024)

Israel Adesanya gets one of the most compelling challenges to his UFC middleweight title in the main event of UFC 281.

Alex Pereira—who holds two wins over The Last Stylebender in kickboxing—is the next man to try to take his crown. The 185-pound kingpin has five successful title defenses to his name and will look to add the sixth against his old foe.

It's a fascinating matchup, but it isn't the only reason to tune in to the event from Madison Square Garden in New York City.

Carla Esparza will attempt to defend her women's strawweight belt against Zhang Weili, while Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier both attempt to get back into the lightweight title picture.

Here's a look at the entire schedule and predictions for the three biggest fights on the card.

Main Card (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET)

,Prelims (ESPNews/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)

Early Prelims (ESPNews/ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)

Obviously, the draw here is just how the striking is going to shake out between these two former kickboxers.

The first matchup was incredibly close between the two, with Pereira ultimately taking the decision. In the rematch, it was Adesanya who appeared to be winning the fight with a steady diet of pressure right until the point he was caught with a massive right hand from Pereira.

Five years later, the two are set to go at it again under MMA rules. Adesanya has a much larger body of work in that arena. This will only be Pereira's eighth professional MMA fight. The champion will walk into the cage for the 25th time on Saturday night.

That could wind up being the difference. With the added space in the cage, the importance of being more nuanced when defending with four-ounce gloves and the transitions from grappling, clinching and striking are all things that could favor the man who has spent more time in the sport.

There's always the chance that Pereira catches him again. That's what makes the fight so intriguing.

But over the course of a five-round fight in what should be a tactical chess match, Adesanya is just more versatile.

The odds might not be giving Carla Esparza—a champion with real wrestling chops—enough credit.

That being said, it's understandable that Zhang Weili is the favorite in this spot. Her striking game is much more powerful and refined than the champion's. Esparza is going to have to do a good job of managing distance and staying away from takedowns, but this is her matchup to take.

The 35-year-old is on a tear right now. She has won six fights in a row to get to this point, including a split-decision win over Rose Namajunas. Weili's two losses in the UFC have come against Namajunas, albeit one was a split decision that could have gone either way.

Esparza's best path to victory is to manage the distance, where she is completely out of striking distance, clinching or shooting takedowns. She has to stay out of the pocket and away from back-and-forth exchanges.

It's a game plan she has had success with before but not against someone with Zhang's physical gifts. Ultimately, it's too long to expect her to play the cat-and-mouse game.

Prediction: Zhang via third-round TKO

The two championship fights at the end obviously have the highest stakes. But it's the lead-in fight between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler that's the most fun.

Both are in the stage of their careers where they want to generate the most buzz possible to create the biggest money-making opportunities for themselves, and that means putting on fun fights.

They are fun fighters in one of the most entertaining divisions with power to draw an audience.

So while Michael Chandler's best path to victory here would be to test Poirier's wrestling chops and try to maintain top control, it isn't likely to happen.

Instead, he's going to engage Poirier in a glorified boxing match with some kicks thrown in for good measure. Chandler possesses considerable power, especially in his right hand. However, Poirier is the more polished boxer of the two.

The concern for the 36-year-old Chandler is that he's been knocked out by Charles Oliveira and took plenty of damage in his decision loss to Justin Gaethje before knocking out Tony Ferguson.

Poirier will work his jab. Find openings with his combinations and eventually test Chanlder's chin.

Prediction: Poirier via third-round TKO

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